Steiner: 'Ferrari Must Put Everything on Hamilton, and Antonelli Will Soon Make Mistakes'

As the 2026 Formula 1 season reaches its halfway mark, the races are beginning to reveal cracks that come not from speed or technique, but from strategic choices at the team level. Guenther Steiner, former Haas team principal and now a pundit on The Red Flags Podcast, has offered a sharp assessment of the championship battle unfolding between two major teams: Ferrari and Mercedes. Steiner is not one to exaggerate. Throughout his career, he has been known for direct statements, without embellishment. This time, he spoke about Lewis Hamilton, who is driving the red Ferrari, and Kimi Antonelli, the young Italian driver for Mercedes, who leads the standings with a 59-point gap over teammate George Russell. Steiner believes Hamilton still has a chance to secure his eighth title in history, but that chance is small, and it depends on two conditions: Ferrari must focus all its resources on Hamilton, and Antonelli must make mistakes. From a strategic perspective, this is not merely a comment. It is a team-level strategy analysis, where each decision at the end of the season can shape an entire era. As the season enters its second phase, pressure on teams increases exponentially. For Ferrari, the question is not whether the car is fast, but whether they dare to choose one driver to back. Steiner directly pointed out that Hamilton is outperforming Charles Leclerc in the same car. Data from the races shows Hamilton often has an advantage in speed and consistency. Looking at the results, Hamilton and George Russell are level on points, while Russell was his former teammate at Mercedes. This makes the comparison between the two teams clearer: if the Ferrari and Mercedes have comparable performance, then Hamilton is the difference-maker. But Ferrari's weakness is not speed; it's the division of resources. In Formula 1 history, championship-winning teams often have a clear number one driver. Michael Schumacher at Ferrari, Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes, Max Verstappen at Red Bull – all were the center of strategy, receiving priority in car development and pit stop tactics. Steiner alluded to the 'papaya rules' – McLaren's policy – where both drivers are free to race. That sounds fair, but in a tight championship, it can be a double-edged sword. If Ferrari adopts a similar model, they could lose points to rivals due to internal collisions or the scattering of resources. Therefore, Steiner predicts that Fred Vasseur – Ferrari team principal – will soon issue a clear directive: pour all resources into Hamilton. That means Leclerc will have to accept the role of number two, though it will not be easy. Leclerc is a talented driver, beloved by Italian fans, and being demoted to a support role could cause internal conflict. But Steiner believes this is the right decision if Ferrari truly wants to win. In a two-horse race, every point matters. A number two driver who knows his role will help the team maximize points, rather than risking losing a win due to unnecessary competition. However, there is a factor Steiner did not explicitly state: the Mercedes car seems to have reliability issues. He only mentioned 'trouble with the car sometimes, including mechanical issues.' But looking at the 59-point gap between Antonelli and Russell, it becomes clear that not only Antonelli's talent created this gap, but also possibly the difference in reliability between the two cars. In the first year of the 2026 regulation cycle, with a new power unit that is 50% electrified and active aerodynamics, mechanical failure rates are amplified. If Mercedes has reliability problems, that is a weakness Ferrari can exploit. Hamilton's task is clear: he needs to close the 59-point gap in the second half of the season. Spread over roughly 12 remaining races, that means he needs to outscore Antonelli by about 5 points per race. That is difficult without a Mercedes collapse. But Antonelli is a young driver, only 20 years old, and has never experienced the pressure of a long championship battle. Steiner has set up a hypothesis: Antonelli will make mistakes. That is inevitable for a young driver. The question is when that mistake will come and whether it will be significant enough to change the situation. Technically, the 2026 regulation cycle has caused a redistribution of power. Red Bull no longer dominates like before, McLaren only plays a peripheral role, and Ferrari and Mercedes are in a two-way fight. The absence of other teams in this story is proof of the success of the new rules in creating competition. But it is precisely this competition that makes strategic choices more important than ever. A team cannot survive without a clear plan. From a data perspective, the number 59 is a simple figure but contains multiple layers of meaning. It shows that Antonelli is completely outperforming Russell, and it also shows that Hamilton – who is level with Russell – faces a huge challenge. If you plot the points of the top four drivers, you'll see an inverted V shape, with Antonelli at the top and Hamilton below. To reverse that shape, Hamilton needs to turn the race network into a force triangle, where he is the sharp point and all Ferrari resources point toward him. But the blind spot is execution. Steiner predicts Vasseur will issue the order, but will Leclerc accept it? Will the pit crew execute flawlessly? In a racing team, top-down orders can be sabotaged by the smallest actions from below. And the story is not limited to Ferrari. Mercedes also faces the same issue: do they let Antonelli race freely, or do they provide controlled support? But with a 59-point lead, Mercedes is in a comfortable position. There is a critical point in this network: Leclerc's emotions. If he feels unfairly treated, he could become a danger to his own team. This cannot be seen in the data, but it can destroy a perfect strategy. That's why Steiner, despite being a data analyst, pays attention to human factors. In an interview, he once said: 'Data is a refuge, but the story is home.' That's how he views Hamilton's race: not just the number 59, but the story of a legendary driver chasing his eighth record. The truth is that Hamilton is doing everything he can. He is outperforming Leclerc, who is considered one of the best talents of his generation. He is tied with Russell, who is driving the fastest car. But to win the championship, he needs a miracle. Steiner calls it a 'small chance.' That chance lies in whether Antonelli can stay consistent as pressure mounts. Whether Mercedes continues to run smoothly, or those mechanical issues become a major gap. Regulation-wise, team orders are legal, but they must be managed. In 2026, Ferrari was fined $100,000 for ordering Felipe Massa to give way to Fernando Alonso. If Leclerc is asked to give way in a race where he is faster, that could be a scandal. But Steiner believes Vasseur will do it, because the title matters more than anything. Ferrari has been waiting for a long time, and with Hamilton, they have a historic opportunity. Looking ahead, the second half of the season will decide everything. If Antonelli continues to be consistent, Hamilton may only fight for second place. But if Antonelli makes mistakes – as Steiner predicts – the door will open. And if Ferrari truly focuses all its resources on Hamilton, fans will witness a thrilling race. For a tactical analyst like me, this race is a living network, where every small decision can be the decisive node. I recall a phrase I often use: 'Diagrams don't lie, but the person reading them does.' Data shows Hamilton is behind by 59 points, but it cannot capture his iron will and ability to seize opportunities. In the past, Hamilton has made spectacular comebacks. In 2026, he won the title in the final race with a last-corner overtake. In 2026, he was very close to an eighth title before being robbed in the final seconds of Abu Dhabi. Now, history could repeat, but this time, he doesn't need to rely on the luck of a single race; he relies on the collapse of his rival. In football, I learned that tactics are never absolute. There are moments where players' emotions completely change the situation. Here in F1, it's the same. Leclerc could rebel, Vasseur could hesitate, and Hamilton could lose hope without the team's support. Steiner has indicated the correct path, but whether the team follows it is their own story. Finally, I want to pause and look at a counterintuitive angle. Steiner talks about Antonelli making mistakes as inevitable, but that could be a trap. If Mercedes expects it and prepares mentally, they can overcome it and even become stronger. Conversely, if Ferrari places too much hope in the opponent's mistakes, they may forget to improve their own car. In the second half of the season, teams will bring upgrade packages, and development will matter more than tactics. Current data shows the 59-point gap is a large number. But in F1 history, comebacks from similar gaps are not unheard of. With a few bad races for Antonelli and perfection from Hamilton, everything can change. Steiner called it 'a great moment for the sport' if someone wins eight championships. That's true, but it needs more than a miracle. So, I end with a question for the fans: are we witnessing the beginning of an Antonelli era, or is it the spectacular ending of a legend? The answer lies in the remaining races, where every corner, every pit stop decision, and every emotion of the drivers will paint a complete picture. For those who love data like me, I will closely monitor each node of this network. Because, as I've said, 'Every race is a network; I just find the key node.' And the key node of the 2026 season is forming right before our eyes.